2023 Tony Award Nomination Predictions

The time has finally come for the announcement of the 2023 Tony nominations for the 22-23 Broadway season. This year has been interesting so far, from jukebox musicals to original works to glorious revivals. I am headed to New York this week to check out 11 shows, but wanted to offer my predictions for this year's nominations after studying the race all year. Soon, I can offer more first-hand opinions, but so far I have seen Leopoldstadt and Kimberly Akimbo with more on the way! This is sure to be a day of surprises and snubs, so happy predicting!

Best Musical

'& Juliet

Kimberly Akimbo

New York, New York

Shucked

Some Like It Hot

Dark Horse: A Beautiful Noise: The Neil Diamond Musical

This year, this category has changed and evolved all throughout the year. With early closures from 'Almost Famous' and 'KPOP,' it should be no surprise how this category shakes out. 'Kimberly Akimbo' was small but heart-moving, 'Shucked' has the original aspect going for it and an uproarious book, 'Some Like It Hot' is dazzling and well-crafted, '& Juliet' has been a box office behemoth, and then there's the fifth spot. While there's a potential upset by 'A Beautiful Noise: The Neil Diamond Musical,' 'New York, New York' should edge it out despite lackluster reviews--how can they resist Kander, Ebb and Lin?!

Best Play

Between Riverside and Crazy

Fat Ham

Leopoldstadt

Life of Pi

Prima Facie

Dark Horse: Ain't No Mo, Cost of Living

What a year for new plays! Inventive, thrilling, and oh, did I mention, Tom Stoppard? This category will no-doubt include Stoppard's 'Leopoldstadt' and Pulitzer Prize-winning 'Fat Ham.' I expect the good reviews and performances in 'Between Riverside and Crazy' to propel it to a nom, and then there's two spots left. 'Ain't No Mo' had a cut-short run, but an inventive and timely message, while 'Cost of Living' also has a Pulitzer and great reviews. However, I expect the voters to go big with 'Life of Pi,' despite problems with the book, and think Jodie Comer's performance can propel 'Prima Facie' to a nom, despite the same problems as 'Life of Pi' in terms of writing. I will be happy if I am right, and happy if I am wrong--so many great choices!

Best Musical Revival

Into the Woods

Parade

Sweeney Todd

Dancin'

Dark Horse: Camelot

This has been, no doubt, the year of the musical revival. Some years we have barely had enough to fill the category, resulting in a boring two-show race. But this year, we have been spoiled with treasured revivals. Expect 'Into the Woods' to show up, despite being closed. Its national tour and beloved stars and composer will surely be enough. The next no-brainers are 'Parade' and 'Sweeney Todd,' the former a scaled-back gut-punch by NYCC, and the latter a swooping revival of a classic. That leaves us with a tough choice--'Camelot' or 'Dancin''? I am going to side with 'Dancin'' as it has the Fosse element, but also 'Camelot' got less than stellar reviews, and I think the voters have beef with Sorkin ever since the snub of 'To Kill a Mockingbird.' But I'm going to see 'Camelot,' so I am still rooting for it in a gorgeous and tight race.

Best Play Revival

A Doll's House

Death of a Salesman

The Piano Lesson

Topdog/Underdog

Dark Horse: The Sign in Sidney Brustein's Window

Admittedly, this is the category I have the least informedness on. But nonetheless, I think it is a relatively safe category for the first three--'A Doll's House' will ride on Chastain's coattails in a too-minimal but well-received production, both 'Death of a Salesman' and 'The Piano Lesson' got great reviews and had stellar performances. I think 'Topdog/Underdog' will edge 'Sidney Brustein's Window,' despite the latter's star power. 'Topdog/Underdog' is a renowned piece and the production dazzled.

Best Actress in a Musical

Annaleigh Ashford, Sweeney Todd

Sara Bareilles, Into the Woods

Victoria Clark, Kimberly Akimbo

Micaela Diamond, Parade

Phillipa Soo, Camelot

Dark Horses: Anna Uzele, New York, New York; Lorna Courtney, & Juliet; Adrianna Hicks, Some Like It Hot

This is an incredibly tough category this year, and I totally predict that the last spot could go a number of ways. Our sure-fire bets are Ashford, Bareilles, Clark, and Diamond and each has scored other noms and dazzled in their roles. As for the last spot, I am giving the edge to Soo, as she was in two huge revivals this year, and I think she will score double nods. Now, if I misread the love for Soo, expect Uzele, Courtney, or Hicks to be right in the wings waiting--I can't decide which though!

Best Actor in a Musical

Christian Borle, Some Like It Hot

J. Harrison Ghee, Some Like It Hot

Josh Groban, Sweeney Todd

Ben Platt, Parade

Will Swenson, A Beautiful Noise: The Neil Diamond Musical

Dark Horses: Andrew Burnap, Camelot

This is another stacked category that is almost set, but has some spots that I could see going a number of ways. Safe are Ghee and Groban. Borle has missed some other awards bodies nominations, as has Platt, but I think their history and truly great performances will power through here. Then we have the last spot--I am predicting Swenson as a Broadway vet in a blockbuster musical, but won't be surprised to see Burnap show up on nomination day.

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Julia Lester, Into the Woods

Alli Mauzey, Kimberly Akimbo

Bonnie Milligan, Kimberly Akimbo

Natasha Yvette Williams, Some Like It Hot

Betsy Wolfe, & Juliet

Dark Horse: Phillipa Soo, Into the Woods

This is a tight race between Milligan and Wolfe, with the former having a slight edge in my predictions though Wolfe has some good will in the industry. Lester has been a delightful surprise on several nomination lists, and I hope it extends to here, and Williams is in a hit show with a star performance. Mauzey is the one I am least sure of, and could see Soo's goodwill propelling her to a nom in Mauzey's place--but come on, 'Father Time' in Kimberly Akimbo had me in tears!

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Justin Cooley, Kimberly Akimbo

Jordan Donica, Camelot

Alex Joseph Grayson, Parade

Gaten Matarazzo, Sweeney Todd

Alex Newell, Shucked

Dark Horse: Gavin Creel, Into the Woods; Kevin Del Aguila, Some Like It Hot

This is a stacked category and even this prediction feels like a hot take. Rest assured, Newell, who is non-binary but opted for the Featured Actor category, is the heavy frontrunner, especially after the shocking snub last time on Broadway. Cooley is a sure name to appear, as well, as his debut performance on Broadway. The other three have me puzzled--I put Matarazzo because the Tonys love a celebrity, and his version of 'Not While I'm Around' dazzled critics. As for Grayson, though this is a shot in the dark, his performance in 'Parade' is groundbreaking and I hope it will be rewarded, and Donica is a phenomenal Lancelot in a mixed-reviewed production. Creel and del Aguila are right on the edge, and if this category expanded to six, I would not be surprised!

Best Actress in a Play

Rachel Brosnahan, The Sign in Sidney Brustein's Window

Jessica Chastain, A Doll's House

Jodie Comer, Prima Facie

Audra McDonald, Ohio State Murders

Dark Horse: Laura Linney, Summer, 1976

What a relief to have enough women to fill up the category, something that wasn't so sure early in the season. Expect the tour-de-force performances of Comer, Chastain, and McDonald to be sure things. I am giving the last spot to Brosnahan because it is splashy and their production got good notices, but Linney is right there.

Best Actor in a Play

Sean Hayes, Good Night, Oscar

Stephen McKinley Henderson, Between Riverside and Crazy

Wendell Pierce, Death of a Salesman

Marcel Spears, Fat Ham

Oscar Isaac, The Sign in Sidney Brustein's Window

Dark Horse: Corey Hawkins, Topdog/Underdog; John David Washington, The Piano Lesson

Though this may be the category I am least sure of, this is full of some stellar performances. I see sure bets in Henderson, Spears, and Hayes. Pierce missed some precursors, but Willy Loman is a slam of a role. I think Oscar Isaac's performance in a brand-new revival may make him more of the center of conversations at the right time, but expect Hawkins and Washington to put up a fight!

Best Featured Actress in a Play

Danielle Brooks, The Piano Lesson

Sharon D. Clarke, Death of a Salesman

Faye Castelowe, Leopoldstadt

Miriam Silverman, The Sign in Sidney Brustein's Window

Katy Sullivan, Cost of Living

Dark Horse: Nikki Crawford, Fat Ham; D'Arcy Carden, The Thanksgiving Play

Clarke leads the pack, in my book, with a great classic performance, and riding the wave of acclaim from her 'Caroline' last year. Brooks and Castelow have been in the conversation for a while in acclaimed shows, though Castelow's ensemble piece may hurt her chances. Silverman has been a treat almost out of nowhere in a show rushed to Broadway, but lots of positive talk has been heard of her, and Sullivan's, performances. Don't be surprised if Crawford rides the wave of acclaim for her show, 'Fat Ham,' or if Carden pulls an Amy Shumer and gets a nod.

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Andre de Shields, Death of a Salesman

Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

David Krumholtz, Leopoldstadt

Arian Moayed, A Doll's House

Brandon Uranowitz, Leopoldstadt

Dark Horse: Jordan E. Cooper, Ain't No Mo; Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson

A category swith several greats, and several younger performers with great reps. Uranowitz is a sure-fire nominee, as is Jackson. I expect Krumholtz to score the double nod in the category for the show for his brotherly performance, and De Shields, a Tony Winner, has goodwill in a great show. Moayed, though often overshadowed by his costar Jessica Chastain, has much to say in his show, and still shines even with the megastar onstage. Though both dark horses are from closed shows, I could see them wanting to reward them, especially Cooper, who penned and starred in his show.

Best Director of a Musical

Michael Arden, Parade

Lear DeBessonet, Into the Woods

Thomas Kail, Sweeney Todd

Casey Nicholaw, Some Like It Hot

Jessica Stone, Kimberly Akimbo

Dark Horse: Susan Stroman, New York, New York

Finally a year of multiple nominations for female directors, who have consistently churned out some of my favorite pieces of theatre the past decade. DeBessonet is in a great place with a widely-acclaimed, stripped-back Sondheim revival at her held, and Kail can use that slightly as well. I expect Stone to coast on the KA craze, and Nicholaw to score a nod for tackling the subject matter of an outdated picture and working it for the modern day (though not without his detractors.) But Arden is who I am most excited to see for directing a timely and gorgeous show with a similar stripped-back feel but a modern connection--and his previous revivals speak for themselves in mastery of directing. Stroman could swoop in, but I'm not confident enough in NY, NY's reception to say so.

Best Director of a Play

Saheem Ali, Fat Ham

Miranda Cromwell, Death of a Salesman

Patrick Marber, Leopoldstadt

Latanya Richardson Jackson, The Piano Lesson

Max Webster, Life of Pi

Dark Horse: Kenny Leon, Topdog/Underdog

You can count on Marber and Webster, even though the latter's show was less unanimous in its praise--the spectacle alone is worth the nod. Ali directs a Pulitzer Prize winner with black voices in a gorgeous way, and I am optimistic to continue the inclusion of more female directors with Cromwell and Jackson, both directing Black-led classic revivals that opened to raves. But something tells me no one is safe, and Leon is right there--Topdog/Underdog had some of the best word of mouth I have seen. We shall see!

Best Book of a Musical

Robert Horn, Shucked

David Lindsay-Abaire, Kimberly Akimbo

Matthew Lopez, Amber Ruffin, Some Like It Hot

Anthony McCarten, A Beautiful Noise: The Neil Diamond Musical

David West Read, & Juliet

Dark Horse: Aaron Sorkin, Camelot

This category feels jaunty and laugh-y this year and I love it. Expect Lindsay-Abaire to score a nod for adapting his play as a musical, and Horn, a former Tony winner, to score for his hilarious book for Shucked. Some Like It Hot walked the line of gender dynamics well, and & Juliet was creative in using the book with the song catalogue. McCarten's book wasn't stellar, but I have a feeling the bad reviews for Sorkin's new book will oust him--but, that said, critics are not the only voters!

Best Original Score

Brandy Clark, Shane McAnally, Shucked

Andrew T. Mackay, Life of Pi

Helen Park, Max Vernon, KPOP

Marc Shaiman, Scott Witman, Some Like It Hot

Jeanine Tesori, David Lindsay-Abaire, Kimberly Akim

Dark Horse: Andrew Lloyd Webber, Bad Cinderella

Don't get me wrong--I love some of these songs and scores. But when plays make the cut, often without lyrics, it means some musicals may not have cut it, or sometimes, not enough even opened. In the case of 'New York, New York,' your score was considered ineligible for not enough new content written specifically for the show...So! This year, we find a few ahead of the pack, with Tony Winner (and composer of my favorite musical) Jeanine Tesori and Lindsay-Abaire writing a hearty, touching musical, and Clark and McAnally, Nashville natives and acclaimed country songwriters, writing a hilarious and catchy country score. I would say Shaiman and Witman are also a safe bet (I mean, they wrote the score for Hairspray!), but the rest are an open field. I do believe that KPOP deserves a spot here amid some less deserving competitors, and Life of Pi's score compliments the less talky story well. Lloyd Webber is never to be counted out--though his show may have cursed itself with the name.

As for now, that's all I have! Check back in the next few weeks for more updates after visiting and seeing many of these shows! Happy Tony's season!